I’ve decided it’s past time I admit — nay declare — that the Baltimore Orioles will never be anything other than a mediocre baseball team.
I’ve been wanting to say that for several years now, but I deferred to much more learned folks — the historian and archivists, the statisticians, the algorithm drones, the believers of “the rebuild,” the optimists — who convinced me otherwise. Or at least convinced me to keep my mouth shut.
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Realizing that my personal conclusion is derived mainly from emotional and anecdotal evidence, I acquiesced to the “experts” and rode out several more seasons, witnessing little to nothing to change my mind.
Watching the recent trade of Adley Rutschman finally put me over the edge and I’ll tell you why.
Since 2018, we have been told to put all our faith in the rebuild of all rebuilds. In July of that year, the Orioles traded star third baseman Manny Machado ( still a kid) to the Dodgers in exchange for a gaggle of prospects. That move kicked off a subsequent fire sale of most veteran players that we were told was the official beginning of a ground-up renovation. In November, the team hired Mike Elias as executive vice president and general manager. Fans were told Elias would craft a structural rebuild much in the fashion of the one he was credited with engineering for the Houston Astros. Elias worked for the Astros from 2012-2018, and was widely credited with drafting core talent that turned the basement dwellers into World Series champions.
Elias was known for his dependence on and faith in analytics, and brought several Houston analytical employees with him, saying that he would implement a data-driven organizational overhaul.
In December 2018, Elias hired Brandon Hyde, a Chicago Cubs bench coach, to be the team’s manager, the guy who would lead the rebuild.
But here’s the problem I have, as a 60-year fan of this team. Since the mid-1980s, not long after the Orioles’ most recent World Series championship, we the fans have been sold on rebuild after rebuild after rebuild, though admittedly of various levels of destruction and reconstruction.
There have been a few high spots along the way. Camden Yards opened in 1992 and fans flocked to the new stadium in record numbers. Corporations snapped up season tickets by the bucketful and the team set a franchise record for the most consecutive sellouts. At one time, the season ticket waiting list was estimated to be about 10 years.
The team made the playoffs in 1996 and ’97 but didn’t go far.
“However, the late 1990s and early 2000s were characterized by losing seasons and rebuilding efforts,” according to an online history of the team.
The team had a bit of resurgence under the field leadership of manager Buck Showalter, with the O's making the playoffs in 2012, ’14 and ’16. Then the bottom fell out, leading to the team finishing last in the AL East in 2017, 18 games behind the division champs Boston Red Sox. And no fan can forget the catastrophic season of 2018, which saw the team set a franchise record no one wants to set, with a record of 47 wins and 115 losses. Showalter was fired three days after that abysmal season ended.
Over these many years, we have watched young players come and go as soon as their rookie contracts expired. We watched pitchers struggle here and then watched them win World Series titles, Cy Young awards and MVP accolades when they went elsewhere.
So, with that history, I give you some of my emotional thoughts. In saying the Orioles will remain mired in mediocrity, I fully realize there will be the fluke years, the surprise years and the over-achievement years. But while I probably won’t be alive to say “I told you so,” I doubt we will ever see our Birds experience the dominance and success of the 1960s, ‘70s and early-80s. From elementary school through college, my favorite baseball team was almost always in the running. And the team remained consistent and recognizable — the days of Brooks, Boog, Frank and Jim to later days of Cal, Eddie, Rick and Mike.
Maybe I have a memory of convenience, but I don’t remember many examples of young stars or beloved veterans being sold off mid-season.
Now, I can practically hear some of you ‘splaining to me that baseball is a business. I know that and understand that. I just don’t think Baltimore owners since the departure of Jerry Hoffberger have been particularly good at running the business. Ownership went from bad to worse when it transitioned from Edward Bennet Williams to Eli Jacobs, and then to Peter Angelos. And like it or not, the fan base is an important part of that business equation but they never seem to have a seat at the table.
Again, anecdotally, I blame the 31-year tenure of the Angelos regime for establishing the draft them and ditch them philosophy of player retainment. For decades, we have all witnessed the pattern of drafting good, young players year after year. We watch them develop and we fall in love with them, only to see them either traded off before their rookie contracts end or lost them to free agency. The Orioles, it appears, are happy to have three or four years of baseball minimum-wage players and then get rid of them when it’s time to pay them market value.
Which brings me to the current “rebuild.” According to the calendar, we’re in year eight of the rebuild that kicked off officially with the 2019 season. By virtue of finishing poorly year after year, the Orioles were able to stock the minor leagues with top prospects with the high draft picks awarded to crappy teams.
For several years during this current rebuild, we took pride in having the highest rated farm system, which was chock full of promising, almost guaranteed future stars. At one point, the farm system was so bloated we bragged about the embarrassment of riches, with the only worry being how all of them would get appropriate playing time and how to choose among them when the time came.
For the first time, many of us actually followed the progress of minor leaguers as they made their way through the farm team ranks. We know the names — Rutschman, Henderson, Holliday, Hall, Cowser, Westburg, Stowers, Mayo, Kjerstad, Beavers, Norby and Ortiz.
We kept an eye on those young guns because they were the seeds of the next World Series, we were told. And indeed, when Adley Rutschman was promoted mid-season 2022, he was largely credited with being the shot in the arm that turned that season around. Adley was the fresh face of the rebuild and would be followed by the rest of the young phenoms as they paid their minor league dues. And one after the other, most of them were called up. Some went up and down as their performances waxed and waned but the future was here, we were told.
In that 2022 season, after Elias traded away veteran players at the deadline, he declared, “It’s liftoff from here.” Translation: The rebuild was complete and the pieces were in place for longterm success.
We played along with the narrative. We embraced these young players with the vibrant personalities and the equally vibrant skill sets. I got a big kick out of the dugout traditions the kids instituted, from the large chain link home run necklace to the homer hose to the hydration station. Sunflower seed showers greeted home run hitters when they returned to the dugout and team chemistry seemed to be at an all-time high. The creation of the Bird Bath section in the stands was pure marketing genius, I thought.
In 2022, Adley’s debut season, the Birds finished with 83 wins and 79 losses. The following year, the Orioles shocked the baseball world by winning the AL East division with a record of 101-61. The post-season excitement was short-lived, however, as the home team lost three straight games to the Texas Rangers in a divisional series. But, we all thought, the long awaited baseball Promised Land was here. There would be more of the same, the team would only get better as more prospects got promoted.
The 2024 season took a little step backward, with a final record of 91-71, good enough for a Wild Card slot in the playoffs. The post-season disappointment continued, however, with the Kansas City Royals sweeping the series, 2 games to none.
The 2025 season took a bigger step back with a final record of 75-87, finishing outside of the playoff borders.
This seems like a good time to point to the elephant in the room, the albatross, the Achille’s heel. Pitching. This team has needed pitching for more than 30 years. Sure, there’s the occasional ace, the surprise performer, the veteran with one final superb season, the great closer. But we haven’t had a solid pitching staff with four good, dependable starters in forever. The days of Palmer, Cuellar, McNally and Dobson are long gone. Hell, the days of complete games are long gone. Pitchers are specialists these days. There are starters; there are openers who will pitch just an inning or two, by design, before yielding to the bullpen; there are long- and middle-relievers; there’s a set-up pitcher; and there’s a closer. Jim Palmer threw 211 complete games in his 19-year tenure. Shane Baz just threw a complete game for the Birds on Friday, a 2-1 loss to Texas.Trevor Rogers tossed a complete game on Aug 1, 2025, and that was the first once since Dean Kremer completed his game of Sept. 23, 2022.
And despite pitchers specializing and throwing far fewer innings than their predecessors, they are experiencing season- and career-ending injuries at alarming rates. Is conditioning a problem? Is technique a problem? Is pitch speed emphasized too much? I don’t know what the cause is, but modern pitching is destroying too many arms.
I’d have to scour rosters but I think the last time we had a true ace who stayed longer than a couple of seasons was Mike Mussina. And our losing culture eventually handed him to the Yankees. I took great pride in watching the Yankees not win a World Series during his tenure, because we Baltimore fans can carry grudge, but that’s another story.
But I digress. Every year, pitching is the big need. And every year, we go to winter meetings and come out with outfielders we don’t need and utility infielders we don’t need. When we sign a pitcher, it’s usually a veteran whose best years are behind him. We have prospects and has-beens; there don't seem to be many middle-career players who are here because they want to be. And mid-career players who express a desire to remain an Oriole get traded away.
With pitchers almost an endangered species in Baltimore, we just traded away Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells at the deadline. It sure seems like management raised the white flag on this season.
So here’s my major beef and the move that I think proves my point that the Orioles will never be a serious contender.
Just four years ago, Adley Rutschman was the heir apparent, the fresh, enthusiastic face of the most comprehensive overhaul in team history. He was it. He was going to lead us to the Promised Land. He was going to take us deep into the playoffs and eventually to the World Series.
And now he’s gone. Cut loose. Traded for any value at all before he was lost to free agency; before he could get scarfed up by a team with ultra-deep pockets. Because the Orioles just don’t pay those big contracts with any regularity. And any time they do sign those mega contracts, they get burned (can we say Chris Davis) and that cools the desire to offer those kinds of deals again.
I’ve read the opinions that we actually got a great deal for Adley, that we got a handful of top prospects. Indeed, the team is once again boasting about the ranking of its farm system, based largely on those new acquisitions. We’re being told they are promises for a bright future. But we’ve been living on the promises of upcoming prospects and an extremely loaded farm system for years, and what do we have to show for it? Two playoff appearances with a collective record of 0-5 is supposed to excite us? We are now watching the big rebuild prospects being traded away. Of the players I mentioned above, Rutschman, Hall, Stowers, Norby and Ortiz are gone. Westburg is injured and out for the season, and Kjerstad is still languishing in the farm system. And Ryan Mountcastle, a highly touted draft pick from before the rebuild, never really lived up to his potential and has spent much of his career on the injured list. Neither Henderson nor Holliday are performing at the levels we were told to expect, which could bring into question the abilities of the coaching staff. It just seems like, again, anecdotally, that too many players aren't developing to the levels they were expected to attain.
In a nutshell, something is horribly, systemically wrong with this team. Elias doesn’t seem to be the right guy for the position that apparently holds much of the sway in determining the team’s blueprint; I’m not at all impressed with rookie manager Craig Albernaz, who seems to be way out of his element; our coaching staff doesn’t seem to be effective or inspirational; and our training and conditioning staff is obviously suspect.
I had high hopes when David Rubenstein bought the team, and he was Mr. Visibility that first year. He was always at games, meandering into seating sections and tossing out team merch. He seemed like a breath of fresh air. Now he just seems like more of the same; the continuation of the draft them and ditch them philosophy.
I’m prepared to lose Henderson, Holliday and the rest of this young cohort over the next few years as they head to wealthy contenders and then we’ll be on to the next group of promising prospects. Wash, rinse, repeat.
The experts, the pundits, the analysts and the statisticians might still believe otherwise.
But this is my story and I’m sticking to it.
